Investing: it’s only getting easier

I think the hardest part of investing is the beginning. When you are starting out, the return on investment seems minimal (unless you start out with 50k+ lump sum). I started my investment with $500 each in Smartshare and Superlife. I remember the first couple months, returns are under $10 and I lose money in some months as well. However, as I slowly build up my investment by monthly contribution and reinvest my returns, the returns are getting better over time. My portfolio passes its milestone with less and less time. Investing is getting easier
Here is a simulation for someone who investing into a growth asset with $500 a month. The average annual return is 7% and the goal is to reach $100,000. It took 11 years and 2 months to reach 100K
investment easy 6.png
If you break down the investment by $10,000 block and measure the months it took to reach each one of them, it took less and less time.
investment easy 4.png
The first $10,000 took you 20 months and the last $10,000 only took you 9 months. It’s just getting easier.
Also, around the 10th year mark, the monthly return on investment actually is more than your $500 monthly contribution.
Overall, you’ve only contributed $66,500. The rest came from the return of your investment. investment easy 3.png
You may think you only got a tiny amount right now, it won’t make a difference. From our example, the first $500 contribution turns into $1,226 at the end. That tiny $500 contribution is only 0.75% of your total contribution. However, with the power of reinvesting, continues contribution and compounding interest, the return on that first $500 represent 1.23% on the $100,000. So if you haven’t started your investment, start now! That tiny initial investment could be your biggest return. If you already started, the hardest part is already over, just enjoy the downhill ride.
Also, don’t be afraid to aim for a big number. The path to get there is a lot shorter than you think. Currently, I am only 5% on my investment goal, but I know the hardest 5% is over. Investing, it’s only getting easier.

Will you switch KiwiSaver plan during a market correction?

[I wrote this back in 5th Oct 2016]

I’ve got into a discussion with a colleague about changing KiwiSaver plan. He is in his 30s and he decided to switch his growth plan to a defensive scheme. The reason was he thinks there is a market correction coming in late 2016 or first half of 2017, by switching to the defensive scheme, he can avoid a drop in his investment. He will switch back to growth once we are out of the correction.

I do agree there is a market correction coming and defensive scheme will do better in a down market compared to growth plan.

Let’s use Superlife income (defensive scheme) and Superlife60 (growth) as an example.

superlifeincome2015.PNGsuperlife60.PNG

During 2008 GFC, most markets were down by A LOT. Superlife income returning about 6% to 8% during 2008-2009 and Superlife60 was returning -8% to -14% at the same time. So if you start your Kiwisaver in 07 in Superlife 60 (returning 4.8%), then switch to Superlife Income at 08, 09 (6% and 8%), switch back to Superlife 60 at 2010 (15%). You will be doing average 8.45% p.a. while Superlife 60 doing -0.55% in those four years.

By looking at the math, it’s all great, but the main question is HOW DO YOU KNOW WHEN TO SWITCH? We are trying to time the market. The return looks great when we do it retrospectively but in reality, it took lots of time, resource and knowledge to time the market and people who are experts in that area still don’t get it right. If we switch too early, we may miss out on the last bit of gain. On the other hand, if we change too late, we will take the hit of initial crash.

I am personally not sure about this. I was trying to time the market back at 2014, and I was wrong. The conventional wisdom was to ignore the ups and downs of the market and keep it in a growth fund. You will ride it out eventually. However, somewhere in my mind I still think I can get a better return by switching. Not to a defensive scheme but a balanced scheme to smooth it out.

[Now, back to March 2017]

I ended up keeping the growth fund and it turns out great. The return on those months is far better than the defensive fund. The main reason was due to the poor performance of income asset in the last quarter 2016.

However, is not about growth fund did better than the defensive fund. In fact, I’ll still be happy if the defensive fund did better because the performance for my KiwiSaver in a single quarter only have a tiny impact on the lifetime of my fund. The lesson I learn was to stick to right fund for me, just sit back and let it growth.

Email thesmartandlazy@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter @thesmartandlazy if you have any questions.